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Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

BNB Up or Down - April 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

XRP Up or Down - April 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

Solana Up or Down - April 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET

DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department,

The most important development is the sharp spike in Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic measures (50→96 and 50→77), indicating escalating maritime tensions that increase the likelihood of a protracted Iran conflict bleeding into the midterm cy

Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in

Thesis confidence remains steady at 5% as the core conflict (Trump vs. Powell) intensifies via a 14.5% jump in 'firing' probability, while the 'Warsh confirmation' leg remains the primary bottleneck to the trade's realization.

Sell US-Iran nuclear deal: 49¢ thesis gap screams NO

E2 (Polymarket, 54¢) and E3 (Kalshi, 54¢) both price a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 at 54¢, while the underlying thesis implies just 5¢ fair value — a 49¢ raw edge and 31¢ effective edge. Cross-venue confirmation at identical prices rul

Fade OpenAI recovery: 6¢ price with no catalyst path visible

OpenAI collapsed from ~10¢ to 6¢ in a single session as Anthropic surged to 95¢, with cross-venue confirmation of the benchmark flip. At 6¢, OpenAI's 'best AI model' contract still has 6¢ of value to lose if Anthropic's Claude lead is susta

California billionaire wealth tax at 48¢ to pass — buy the dip

The California billionaire one-time wealth tax 'passes' contract jumped +10¢ to 48¢ after the ballot qualification contract surged +23¢ to 93¢ — a 23¢ qualification-to-passage contagion lag implies the passage contract is still 15¢+ underpr

Contrarian: Congress Trump veto override IY=1952 — structural mispricing

L1 prices Congressional override of Trump's veto before 2027 at just 7¢ with an implied yield of 1952 — the highest IY in the entire legislative dataset. This is a classic liquidity-trap mispricing: market assigns near-zero probability to a

Buy Trump China visit May 31 at 78¢: coordinated surge confirms intel

The May 31 Trump China visit contract gained +8¢ to 78¢ in a single session, with simultaneous gains across May 15 (+3¢ to 61¢) and June 30 (+3¢ to 85¢) contracts — a 3-contract coordinated move that statistically rules out noise and implie

The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces t

Thesis confidence drops as multiple mediation channels (Oman, Pakistan) report breakthroughs, directly contradicting the 'no diplomatic off-ramp' core assumption. Market prices for oil and shipping transit have aggressively corrected, sugge

Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks st

The thesis confidence faced a minor downward revision as oil futures markets showed a trend toward stabilizing or retreating from high-end upside bets, contradicting the expectation of an extreme price spike supporting Russia's war budget.

Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. AI companies delay or

Recent market signals show a strong retreat in energy price expectations, specifically regarding WTI oil and natural gas benchmarks, which weakens the thesis that electricity costs will surge to the point of impacting data center expansion.

Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo

Data confirms that while shipping transit disruptions are locked as a stable negative factor, the secondary transmission to US rural voter behavior and electoral outcomes is weaker than initially modeled, leading to a confidence downgrade.

The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militarily, but because the c

The thesis confidence has decreased slightly as evidence for a catastrophic, single-event fiscal/economic shock weakens, with market trends favoring more temperate diplomatic and energy pricing scenarios.

Automated Prediction Market Trading: CLI Agents on Kalshi

A practical guide for developers and traders on using CLI-based agents to automate order placement on Kalshi prediction markets. Covers thesis-driven trading logic, real tickers, and the agentic runtime behind production-grade automation.

Prediction Market Terminal Dashboard: Bloomberg-Style Monitoring for Kalshi Traders

A practical guide to building a professional-grade terminal dashboard for monitoring Kalshi prediction markets in real time. Covers CLI tooling, agentic scanning, position tracking, and thesis-driven trade execution.